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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."